Base case from Avocado_50ac_Demo_10yr.xlsx. 65/30/5 at shed; 7.0 t/ac mature; crude 950 KES/L at 12%; press Line-1 15M Yr4 + 9.864M Yr7; 12% interest, 3yr principal grace. KES millions, 1 decimal.
| Yr0 | Yr1 | Yr2 | Yr3 | Yr4 | Yr5 | Yr6 | Yr7 | Yr8 | Yr9 | Yr10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farm revenue | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.1 | 21.0 | 49.7 | 94.3 | 133.8 | 162.4 | 178.3 | 178.3 |
| Farm capex+opex | 15.6 | 14.1 | 15.8 | 18.1 | 9.3 | 12.5 | 17.4 | 21.7 | 24.8 | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| Press capex | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Press opex | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Net before debt | -15.6 | -14.1 | -15.8 | -13.0 | -7.5 | 33.0 | 72.7 | 97.4 | 132.8 | 147.0 | 147.0 |
| Yr0 | Yr1 | Yr2 | Yr3 | Yr4 | Yr5 | Yr6 | Yr7 | Yr8 | Yr9 | Yr10 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drawdown | 13.9 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 10.6 | 15.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 9.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Interest due (12%) | 0.00 | 1.66 | 3.13 | 4.77 | 6.61 | 9.20 | 8.59 | 7.69 | 7.35 | 5.49 | 3.07 |
| Principal due | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.35 | 5.11 | 7.44 | 12.72 | 15.52 | 20.12 | 25.61 |
| Paid (assignment) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.31 | 16.03 | 20.42 | 22.87 | 25.61 | 28.69 |
| Closing balance | 13.9 | 26.1 | 39.7 | 55.1 | 76.7 | 71.6 | 64.1 | 61.3 | 45.7 | 25.6 | 0.0 |
| DSCR (net ÷ due) | — | -8.45 | -5.05 | -2.73 | -0.68 | 2.31 | 4.54 | 4.77 | 5.81 | 5.74 | 5.12 |
DSCR = net cash before debt ÷ (interest + principal due). Negative Yr1–4 = grace/accrual period by design; ≥2.3× from Yr5. Principal back-loaded to the harvest ramp; peak balance ~76.7M in Yr4. LLCR and sensitivities available in the workbook on request.
| Yr3 | Yr4 | Yr5 | Yr6 | Yr7 | Yr8+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total harvest (t) | 40 | 165 | 390 | 740 | 1,050 | 1,225–1,400 |
| Oil fruit 30% (t) | 12 | 50 | 117 | 222 | 315 | 383–420 |
| Crude litres (~) | 1,574 | 6,557 | 15,344 | 29,109 | 41,312 | 50,230–55,082 |
| Press capacity use (600t) | 2% | 8% | 20% | 37% | 53% | 64–70% |
Hass only; 65/30/5 at shed, exporter bears post-collection loss; farm-gate collected 140 KES/kg; crude 950 KES/L; 12% extraction (Meru Table 6: 8.33t = 1t oil); dry matter ≥24%; river drip with WRA permit; shed wash/store no cooling, same-day dispatch; press 500kg/h machinery only. Sensitivities to run: export 60%, extraction 10%, crude −20%, price −20%.