200-acre Hass + crude oil
Phased orchard (50ac/yr × 4) with own crude press (Yr4 + Yr7). Repayment from assigned fresh-fruit and crude-oil proceeds.
Four 50-acre phases turn virgin bush into steady contracted supply.
Land is virgin: slashing, holing, seedlings and drip per 50ac phase (piece work). Drip water from nearby river (WRA abstraction permit required). On-farm shed is wash + sort + store only, no cooling — same-day dispatch. Exporter's packhouse is ~300km away; exporter collects at our shed and bears all post-collection loss.
KES 77,400,400.
Sum of phased works plus 10% contingency. Machinery only for press — land and buildings already available and excluded.
| Item | KES | Timing |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 farm (50ac + shed + river intake) | 13,850,000 | Yr0 |
| Phases 2–4 farm (50ac × 3) | 31,650,000 | Yr1–3 |
| Press Line-1 (500kg/h core, machinery) | 15,000,000 | Yr4 |
| Press expansion (2nd capacity) | 9,864,000 | Yr7 |
| Subtotal works | 70,364,000 | |
| + 10% contingency → ask | 77,400,400 |
Drawdown follows the same phasing — farm Yr0–3, press Yr4/Yr7. Interest 12% p.a., 10-year tenor as modelled.
Assignment of crop and oil proceeds.
Exporter (fresh) and refiner (crude) pay into a KDC-controlled collection account. Waterfall: KDC debt service → opex reserve → farmer. Risk transfers at shed gate on loading receipt, so modelled 65/30/5 is final.
Principal is back-loaded to the harvest ramp (see Annex): Yr4 4.35M → Yr5 5.11M → Yr6 7.44M → Yr7 12.72M → Yr8 15.52M → Yr9 20.12M → Yr10 25.61M. Loan clears to zero in Yr10 in the base case.
Toll capacity coincides with our peak.
- Season clash: March–August peak is countrywide, so third-party toll lines queue exactly when our oil fruit peaks. Waiting fruit with no on-farm cooling spoils and FFA rises.
- No-cooling shed: wash/store only forces same-day pressing or dispatch — own line next to the shed removes the wait.
- Quality: own pressing controls maturity-to-press time, moisture and FFA for refiner spec; only sound fruit pressed, rots composted.
- Phased sizing: 500kg/h × 8h × 150 days = 600t/season vs 420t need at full 200ac maturity (~70% utilisation). Line-1 Yr4 covers early volumes (~50t oil fruit); expansion Yr7 follows acreage — no stranded capacity in Yr0–3.
- Storage: crude stores ~2 years ambient under nitrogen in the dark vs frozen cold chain — cheaper to hold than alternatives.
Losses early, strong cover from Yr5.
Net cash before debt is negative Yr0–4 (planting + press build), then turns: Yr5 +33.0M, Yr6 +72.7M, Yr7 +97.4M, Yr8 +132.8M, Yr9–10 +147.0M each.
What DSCR means: 1.0× = just enough cash to pay that year's debt; 1.2–1.5× = comfortable; below 1.0× (our Yr1–4) = grace/accrual period, which is why principal starts Yr4. Full year table in Annex.
Other metrics KDC will expect: LLCR (NPV of cashflows ÷ debt), peak debt (~76.7M Yr4), debt/acre, break-even fresh price and pack-out at 1.0×, and sensitivities (±20% price, 60% export, 10% extraction) — all in Annex.
Basic project SWOT.
- Own 200ac + river water + existing shed/buildings
- Contracted collection model, no self-export burden
- Hass only, EU/GCC demand, crude diversification
- No cooling — same-day dependence
- Negative cash Yr0–4; needs grace discipline
- Single variety + rain/river reliance
- Early/late EU windows, UAE balance, refiner crude
- Modular press expansion with acreage
- Future outgrower onboarding on same system
- Peru peak pricing, Red Sea freight, FX
- Pests/MRL/dry-matter compliance, immature-harvest controls
- Power costs and crude-price pressure from established processors
Title + assignment.
Security: freehold title charge (independent valuation pending) plus assignment of fresh and crude proceeds via collection account. Crop-only would be thin in Yr0–4 — title cover addresses that.
- WRA abstraction permit, EIA/NEMA as applicable, KEPHIS farm registration, GLOBALG.A.P roadmap
- Exporter collection LOI (ex-holding terms), refiner crude bid to firm 950 KES/L
- Agronomist planting/yield letter, valuer report, company KYC
Workbook: Avocado_50ac_Demo_10yr.xlsx (Inputs → 50ac → 200ac rollup → Debt → OwnPress). Annex holds the full tables. Contact: Ankamia Ridge Investments — [name / phone / email TBC].